Methodology of Forecasting

Methodology of Forecasting
Exploratory
Normative
1) Exploratory Forecasting
Starting from present & advancing step by step towards
the future
Involves extrapolation of current trends into future
Two methods…
Delphi Method / Subjective / The expert opinion
method
The technology S Curve / Objective / Quantities
method
Example of notoriously wrong decisions based on
exploratory / subjective method
Lord Kelvin – 1895 – Heavier than air flying machine
are impossible
1904 – Fly machine invented
2) Normative Forecasting
Inventing some future & identifying the actions needed to
bring that future into existing.
Two methods…
Analysis
Planning
a) Normative Analysis
o Looks at underlying structures of current trends
b) Normative Planning
o Actual formation of technology strategy
o Research programs to implement strategy

Forecasting the rates of Technological changes
Technology performance parameters
The measure of technology performance
The efficiency of the transformation
Technology S Curves & physical phenomena underlying
Technologies
Two kind of technology progress
Incremental progress – Along as S Curve
Discontinuous progress – Jumps from an old S Curve
Characteristics of Technology S Curve
Forecasting involves mainly …
The exploration of past & current trends
A structural analysis
Exploration of possible changes
4 general classes of structural features
Structures of current technology abilities
Structures of economic activities & market
Structures of nature & natural potential
Structure of demographic & cultures
Forecasting Directions of Technological Changes
Technology as a system
Progress in technology system
Complex technology system
Product systems / Production system & service systems
Application System
Forecasting application systems development
1) Technology as a system
Any technology is a mapping of a functional logic to a physical
structure.
The analysis of a technology as a system will real two
descriptions.
A logic scheme
A corresponding morphology
Example…
Automobile – Technology as a system
Logic order – Automobile must be fueled, entered, started,
directed & stopped
Logic schematic – Logic of the functional transformer
Physical morphology – Constructed physical structural
whose processes map in a one to one manner with the
logic scheme.
2) Progress in technology system
The advance may occur by…
Extending the logic schematic
Alternating physical morphologies given schematic
Improving performance of a given morphology
Technologies progress can occur from changes in any aspect of
the system…